Why Iran Ceasefire Will Not Last

Below is part of the hopeful message President Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday:

“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE… I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!”

Fox News quickly followed up: “Trump announces ceasefire now underway after deadly missile strike on Israel in the 11th hour,” read its headline.

The newly forming narrative is clear: Let’s celebrate. President Trump’s daring brilliance averted war, and peace will prevail.

Those in the America First camp who opposed Trump’s bombing of Iran are now being asked to repent and apologize for questioning the President’s strategic genius as he conducts his grand, four-dimensional geopolitical chess.

Sadly, despite our collective desire for peace in the Middle East, the ceasefire is unlikely to hold.

This is because the strikes on Iran were never about nuclear weapons. In fact, there was every indication that Iran did not have an active nuclear program.

Mere three months ago, Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, testified that, according to a U.S. intelligence community assessment, Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program, which it suspended in 2003.

During her opening statement at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on March 25, 2025, Gabbard said:

"The IC [Intelligence Community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2020. We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.”

The true reason for the unprovoked attack on Iran—a brazen act of military aggression in violation of international law—was not about nonexistent nuclear weapons but about regime change in that country.

This ill-advised action was driven by two main forces: Benjamin Netanyahu and his band of Israeli hardliners, in conjunction with American neoconservatives. These groups worked hand in hand to manipulate Donald Trump into taking this illegal and misguided action.

Netanyahu seeks regime change in Iran because Iran has long been Israel’s regional adversary, and he aims to topple the Ayatollah, hoping to replace him with a compliant Western puppet.

American neoconservatives have two primary motivations. First, many see guiding the U.S. government to serve Israel’s interests as their primary mission. Second, as Iran is an ally of Russia, they aim to dismantle Iran’s regime as part of their broader goal of toppling Vladimir Putin. A regime change in Iran would weaken Russia by depriving it of a key ally and could allow the U.S. to use Iran as a base for further subversion against Russia’s from its exposed underbelly.

As an aside, the neoconservatives’ desire to overthrow Putin has nothing to do with his alleged ambition to conquer Europe—a claim unsupported by evidence. For example, Russia’s military operation in Ukraine was launched with a limited force of fewer than 200,000 troops, hardly indicative of imperial designs. Instead, their animosity toward Putin stems from his refusal to open Russia’s vast natural resources to transnational globalists seeking wealth and profit.

Since the goal of regime change in Iran remains unaccomplished, the ceasefire in the Middle East is unlikely to hold.

We can be almost certain that soon another pretext will emerge to justify renewed agression against Iran.

We should be especially vigilant for false flag operations, such as explosions or terrorist acts, which could be quickly attributed to Iran’s government.

Donald Trump has at times shown a tendency to believe in his own near-omnipotent influence, assuming that his declarations alone have the power to shape reality.

Just because Trump has proclaimed a ceasefire and the end of the “Twelve-Day War” does not mean real world events will conform to his noble intentions.

The Israelis and neoconservatives have different objectives, and they are likely to prevail. Peace may be Trump’s stated aim and initial instinct, but—regrettably—he is being skillfully played by Netanyahu and his allies.

Though people of goodwill desire peace, powerful and ruthless forces are driving us toward war.

May Donald Trump and the sane individuals among his advisors yet find the wisdom and strength to resist these influences. If they do not, we can expect further conflict and disaster in the Middle East and beyond.

We are on a profoundly dangerous path indeed.